Billy Beane has continued to make roster moves since I last posted here.  Some seem to be improvements for the team.  Others are downright puzzling.

Sheets Signs One-Year Deal:  Undoubtedly, the biggest move is the signng of free agent Ben Sheets to a one-year $10-million deal plus incentives, to anchor the starting rotation for 2010.  That makes it the largest 1-year contract the A's have given to a free agent from outside the organization.

The 31-year old hurler didn't  pitch at all in 2009 because he underwent flexor tendon surgery in his right elbow a year ago.  In his 8 years in the majors, he achieved an 86-83 record with a 3.72 ERA, and had double digit wins in 7 of the last 8 seasons.  In 2008 he went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 31 starts.

On January 19th he threw a pitching session at the University of Louisiana at Monroe, and impressed scouts from several organizations, including Oakland, reportedly hitting the low-90's with his fastball.  If he is healthy he'll most likely be the #1 starter and will be an invaluable veteran presence for the younger guys in the rotation.

2010 Pitching Rotation:  The rotation will most probably line up as follows:  Sheets, Duchscherer, Anderson, Braden and Cahill, not necessarily in that order.  Spring training will shake this out when we see how Sheets, Duke and Braden do, coming of long stints on the DL and surgeries last year.  We can't forget about Gio Gonzalez, Vin Mazarro, and Josh Outman who could pitch their way into the rotation, especially if one or two of the guys above don't fare so well in Arizona.  The presence of Sheets will go a long way toward reducing the pressure on the young arms that was so evident in 2009.

Wuertz Returns to the A's Bullpen.  The A's rewarded Michael Wuertz for his outstanding work in the bullpen last year with a 2-year, $5.25 million contract.  The team also has a $3.5M option for 2012, with a $250K buyout if the option is not exercised.  He is expected to earn $2.2M in 2010 and $2.8M in 2011. Wuertz was the A's last arbitration-elligible player to sign.  His record in 2009 (6-1, 2.63 ERA, 74 appearances, and league-leading 102 strikeouts) was so good that the A's violated their rule to tender only 1-year deals for arbitration-elligible players.

Monday, Feb 1st, Was a Busy Day.  The A's signed free-agent outfielder Gabe Gross to a 1-year contract.  Gross hit .227 with 6 homers and 36 RBI's in 282 at-bats last season for the Tampa Bay Rays. 

   He can play all 3 outfield positions, bats left, and has always been a solid defender.  "We just felt like he was a good fit for th team, whether it's spotting some of our guys agains tough righties or filling at time since he can play both corner outfield positions.  We've always liked the way he plays," said Assistant GM David Forst. His signing spelled the end of the speculation that Johnny Damon might resign with the A's.

Also, last Monday, the A's completed a trade with the Cincinnati Reds, obtaining infielder Adam Rosales and outfielder Willy Taveras for infielder Aaron Miles.  It was made evident that the key player in the deal for the A's was Rosales, as they immediately designated Taveras for assignment. 

Rosales completes the infield picture for the 2010 A's, as he can play all 4 infield positions, and will be used as a utility infielder and to spell Cliff Pennington at shortstop.  If any of the other infielders go down with injuries, he could get significant playing time.  "Our scouts have seen a lot of him over the past few years, and every single one of them just loves the way he plays the game and really likes his versatility," said Asst. GM David Forst, who compared his energy to that of Eric Byrnes.

The A's have until Feb. 11th to trade or release Taveras or they will be on the hook for $1.7M of his $2.3M salary for 2010.  The A's are not in need of another outfielder, especially after the signing of Gross, so they will be looking to move him in the next week.  If they can't and he clears waivers, he could go to the minors, most likely the Sacramento River Cats.

Finally, the A's also designated for assignment infielder Gregorio Petit, and pitcher Dana Eveland (long overdue IMHO)

   Hot off the wire, Eveland was traded today (Saturday 2/6) to Toronto for cash and a player to be named later, just 5 days after he was designated for assignment. 

They also claimed Twins' minor-league infielder off waivers.  Tolleson, according to Forst, "...is another guy our scouts have liked since seeing him play in the  Arizona Fall League in 2008.  He can play a number of positions and helps add to the depth."  Both he and Rosales have options left, giving the A's lots of flexibility, esepcially of one or two of the regular infielders go down with injury (Chavez?). 

After the A's acquired Aaron Miles, I became very curious about his role on the team as we didn't hear his name mentioned at all in plans for the upcoming season.  Apparently, Miles know he might be used as trade bait when he was acquired by the A's.  An Antioch native, he admitted, "It would have been nice to stay local and play for the hometown team.  But in the end, you gotta go with what's best for your career, and I think that's definitely in Cincinnati."

Spring Training.  The A's will have a lot of depth when they arrive at spring training later this month.  Is Billy Beane happy with who they have now?  Not so fast.  Forst said that the swarm of roster moves last Monday doesn't necessarily mean the club is done wheeling and dealing.

Miscellanea.  OC Signs:  Former A's Shortstop, Orlando Cabrera signed a $3M deal with the Cincinnati Reds, which includes a $3M option for 2011 with a $1M buyout of the club doesn't want to sign him for the additonal year.

A Higher Calling:  A's Minor-League outfielder Grant Desme, the MVP of the 2009 Arizona Fall League, got a call, but it wasn't from the A's brass.

  He resigned from professional baseball in late January to embark on the 10-year path to becoming a priest, starting with studies at St. Michael's Abbey in Orange County beginning next August.  "It's like I'm re-entering the Minor Leagues," he said.

Sacramento River Cats Owner Dies:  Arthur Lynn Savage, the man who changed evenings in Sacramento and gave the River-City  baseball fans a home team to brag about, passed away at his East Sacramento home on Nov. 22, 2009.  He was 58.

The River Cats organization is one of the nation's most successful minor league franchises.  During the last 10 years, the River Cats broke attendance records every year, outdistancing 200 other minor league teams in the country. 

Mr. Savage was named the Sporting News Minor League Executive of the Year in 2000 and the franchise was honored with the Bob Freitas Award for Excellence in Minor League Baseball for the 2004 season.  He will be sorely missed by all who knew or played for him.

That's all for now.  I'll be at spring training with the A's from March 17th to the 25th.  It should be lots of fun watching all that talent contend for the right to break camp with the A's. 

Wouldn't you know it?  A couple of days after my last post, the A's made another move!  In a deal with their new BFF trading partner, the San Diego Padres, the A's acquired third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and sent them Aaron Cunningham and Scott Hairston,

whom the A's obtained from the Padres last July.  The A's also received minor-league second baseman Eric Sogard in this deal.

It appears, according to Rick Hurd of the Oakland Tribune, that Kouz will get the bulk of playing time at 3rd, and Eric Chavez will move over to 1st base.  Chavvy is recovering from his second back surgery in as many years.  Rick reports that Assistant GM, David Forst, said that Eric "has been throwing and taking grounders in Arizona," and he "feels great."  We'll see how he does in spring training when he has to play in game situations.

Kouz seems a good solution to the A's 3rd base dilemma.  He had a great year in 2009 with the Padres, hitting .255 with 18 home runs and a career-high 88 RBI's.  He posted a .990 fielding percentage at the hot corner, committing just 3 errors, a National League record. 

Kevin and Eric will have some competition at 3rd from Jake Fox who was part of the deal that brough Kevin Miles over from the Cubs for Jeff Gray et al.  There is some question about Fox's defensive skills, but he had 11 homers and 44 RBI's in 82 games with the Cubs last season.

Scott Hairston, on hearing the trade rumors, said, "I hope I'm coming there for sure. If this is true, it's a dream come true...unbelievable!" 

Scott will play alongside his brother Jerry Hairston Jr. when he reports for Spring Training with the Padres in Phoenix (Peoria, actually).

I am really looking forward to the upcoming season.  Join me here for the ride.

Hi!  I haven't posted an article in quite a few weeks as I have been working hard with my editor to get my novel, "Contract Year," ready to submit to agents and publishers.  It's going well but slowly, so I'm not there yet.  I didn't want you faithful readers to think I have abandoned ship, so here I am with an update on what the A's have done since I last wrote.

The A's management implied that the winter might be quiet, but it has been anything but.  Nothing blockbuster-like--they don't have that kind of money to spend.  So here, in no particular order (as they say on Dancing with the Stars) is a rundown of the moves the A's have made:

Jack Cust resigned with the A's for a purported $2.65M with incentives that could earn him more than he was paid last year.  More on this later.

Tommy Everidge was designated for assignment, taking him off the 40-man roster to make room for Cust.

Justin Duchscherer signed a 1-year incentive-laden contract for 2010, worth approximately $5.5M if he achieves all of his incentives.  He says he's 100% and has resolved his off-field issues that were largely triggered by the stress of being injured, his divorce and being so far away from his son who lives in Philadelphia. 

 Coco Crisp was signed to a 1-year deal ($4.5M) with a club option for 2011 ($5.75 with $500K buyout).  He can play anywhere in the outfield.

Santiago Casilla was released. 

Bobby Cassevah, 24, was acquired from the Angels in the Rule 5 draft for $50,000.  A right-handed relief pitcher who pitched at Double-A in 2009 and must stay on the 25-man roster all year or be returned to the Angels for $25,000. 

Beau Vaughan was selected from Texas Rangers in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft under the same conditions as Cassevah. 

Michael Taylor, a Phillies prospect, was acquired in a multi-team trade that sent Brett Wallace to Toronto.  He attended Stanford and is a semester shy of a degree in political science.     And he's a slugger!  A "potential monster talent" according to Billy Beane, he'll probably be vying for the left field spot with Scott Hairston.

Infielders Jake Fox (26) and Aaron Miles (32) were acquired from the Cubs for Pitcher Jeff Gray (Sniff!) and 2 minor leaguers.  Fox played all 4 infield positions with the Cubs last season, batting .259 with 11 homers and 44 RBI's in 82 games.  He will provide a good backup to Eric Chavez at 3rd.  Miles has played most of his MLB games at 2nd base and some at shortstop, but struggled last year with injuries batting a career low .185.  He had a .317 season in 2008 with St. Louis.

Jeff Gray going to the Cubs is a great opportunity for him since they need a power arm in their bullpen, and I am very happy for him.   The Sniff in the previous paragraph is because he has become a friend and I will miss him on the A's.  The very best of luck to you, Jeff!

Pitcher Jay Marshall was claimed off waivers by the New York Mets.  Bye Bye.

Nomar Garciaparra, Bobby Crosby, Adam Kennedy, Brett Tomko and Jack Cust filed for free agency.

Okay, now let's talk about Jack Cust. He wasn't tendered a contract by the A's and filed for free agency on Dec. 12th. Thank God, most of us A's fans thought.  No more strikeouts when we need a hit.  But our relief was short-lived.   He signed a new deal with the A's on January 7th.  He must not have gotten any serious bites on the FA market. 

$2.65M is a lot for someone who led the American League in strikeouts the last 3 years and gave us all apoplexy whenever he stepped up to the plate with runners in scoring position.  But he did post a .240 batting average, 25 homeruns and 70 RBI's.  He looks good on paper, but awful on the field.

Frankly, I would have preferred keeping Tommy Everidge on the 40-man, than signing Jack Cust.  He's only 26 years old, enthusiastic, has pop in his bat, can actually take the field (1st base) and is a helluva lot cheaper!  Go figure!

Other Tidbits:

Chris Carter (1st base/outfield, finished 2009 with the River Cats) was named the A's organization's Minor League Player of the Year for the 2nd year in a row, and received the MiLBY Award as the overall minor league baseball (all organizations) Hitter of the Year, and the Texas League MVP.  His overall stats for 2009 were:  .329, 28 homers, 115 RBI's (2nd in minors), 179 hits (led minors), 310 total bases (tied for 1st).  He'll be giving Daric Barton a run for his money at spring training.

Someone stole the Banjo Man Stacy Samuels' banjo after he absentmindely left it on a sidewalk in Fairfax, CA.

So the winter hasn't been exactly quiet.  I think overall the A's will be an exciting team to watch this coming season.  Most of the has-beens are gone except Cust, the rookie pitchers from last season aren't rookies anymore and should settle down and make up a great starting rotation with Justin Duchscherer back in the rotation, and both the outfield and the infield have been strengthened.  I can't wait for spring training to startin 5 or 6 weeks when the pitchers report. The position players report a week later.  Take me out to a ballgame!

I am almost reluctant to write about this topic, because one of the reasons the Arizona Fall League is so much fun is that the stands are pretty empty and you can hear everything said on the field.  It's an intimate experience and I'd like it to stay that way.  Selfish me.  That said, I'll go against my better judgment and share my experiences with you.

I first went to the Arizona Fall League in October of 2007.  At an A's Booster Club luncheon in September that year, I talked to Jim Young, the Director of Media Relations for the A's, and told him I wanted to interview some A's pitchers for background for my novel.  He said it would be difficult for me to talk to the Major League players, but I should hop on a plane to Phoenix in October and talk to the minor league players in the A's organization who would be pitching in the Arizona Fall League.  He gave me the name of Paul Jensen, his counterpart at the AFL, and suggested I contact him.

I made the trip and interviewed Jeff Gray, Brad Kilby and James Simmons in 2007.  The first two made it to Oakland this season and pitched extremely well for the A's, and both have a good shot at making the opening day roster in 2010.  James should at least get a cup of coffee in Oakland next season. 

I made a return trip this year to talk to the new crop of AFL pitchers from the A's.  Paul again set up interviews for me with Justin Friend, Mickey Storey, Sam Demel and an encore visit with James Simmons, who play for the Phoenix Desert Dogs in the AFL.  All I can say is that the A's farm system is brimming with good pitchers, now and  for some time to come.

I took my accustomed place in the first row of seats next to the Desert Dogs dugout at Phoenix Municipal stadium, the same dugout occupied by the A's at spring training.   Rob Morse, one of Paul's assistants, went into the clubhouse and came back with Justin Friend, who sat down next to me in the stands so we could talk.

"I'd dreamed of playing professional baseball since I was a kid, and baseball gave me an opportunity to do things I wouldn't have dreamed of doing, like getting a scholarship for college."  He played for A's pitcher Brett Anderson's dad at Oklahoma State, where he majored in Education. Justin was drafted by the A's after his junior year in the 13th round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft.

We talked about the life of a ballplayer off the field--the info I need for my novel--what they do for fun, what they do in the offseason, etc.  All very enlightening for me.  Basically, he said that they work so hard during the season, that he just "relaxes and doesn't do much." 

Justin is a relief pitcher and spent most of 2009 playing for the Stockton Ports (Hi-A), where he had an era of 2.87.  He was called up to Midland (AA) for 9 games, and 1 game he'd like to forget at Sacramento (AAA).  He lives in Manteca, California, and gives pitching lessons to kids in the offseason to make a little money and give back to his community.

Next to emerge from the clubhouse was Mickey Charles Storey.

     Yes, he was named for THE Mickey Charles Mantle, who was his dad's favorite player, even though he never saw him play (I did!).  "I didn't have much of a choice.  My dad was into baseball.  I played baseball with him from the time I was old enough to walk."  Mickey grew up in Florida in the Boca Raton area (he still lives there), and attended Florida Atlantic University.  He and his fiancee have an 8-month-old daughter.

Mickey was selected in the 31st round of the 2008 draft and started out with the Kane County Cougars (Low-A).   After he appeared in 13 games and posted a 0.54 ERA, he was promoted to Stockton and pitched in 22 games, earning a 2.28 ERA .  He was also called up to Midland for 4 games, and later by Sacramento for 2 games in which he pitched 3 innings and didn't give up any hits or walks and had 4 strikeouts (0.00 ERA).

2009 was his first year as a relief pitcher.  "I'm fine with it," he says.  He likes the chance to pitch more often because it "makes me feel more like a part of the team on a day to day basis."  We're fine with it too, with numbers he has posted.  Look for him to start out at Midland in 2010.

Sam Demel was my next victim.  I say victim because I had a complete brain fade and called him Josh.  Great way to begin an interview.  Anyway, Sam started playing baseball at age 8, "which was late for most guys."  He was drafted out of high school by the Texas Rangers, but decided to go to Texas Christian University instead, where he majored in Communications.  After his 3rd year, he was drafted by the A's in the 3rd round (120th overall) of the 2007 draft.

  2008 was his first full year in the minors, spending the season at Stockton, where he posted a 3.36 ERA and had 18 saves out of 24 opportunities (2nd in the league), and limited opponents to a .227 batting average.  He's a sinker-slider pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls, which accounts for the low opponents batting average. 

In 2009 he started at Midland, and, after appearing in 27 games and posting a 0.67 ERA, he was called up to Sacramento where he played the rest of the season.  He'll most likely start out there in 2010.

Sam loves being a ballplayer.  "I get to play a game for a living, and they pay me for it.  It can't get any better than that."  He's married and his wife visits him in Sacramento whenever she can.   "I spend all day outside [playing ball], so when I'm away from the ballpark, I'm a TV junkie. I watch Criminal Minds, CSI, things like that."  He plays golf when he can and has a 9 handicap, but it's hard for him during the season to get out on the links.  In the offseason, he plays 5 times a week.  "I do nothing but golf, watch TV and workout."

He says he's been a lucky charm for his fellow roommates on the road.  3 times last year his roommates got called up to the A's:  Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall, and John Meloan.  He was supposed to room with Brad Kilby the day he was called up to the A's. He's hoping some of that luck will rub off on him in 2010.

My final interview was with James Simmons, whom I had interviewed in 2007 at the AFL.

   It was fun to catch up with him, though I have seen him several times at spring training and this past season at Sacramento River Cats games, where he is often in the stands behind home plate charting pitches.  He read a draft of my novel and gave me invaluable input, even rewriting my lame attempts at ballpayer dialog to sound more like the real thing.  James had so much to say when I saw him this time that I will do a separate article on him in a day or so.

All of these fine young men told me that there isn't much "off" in the offseason, especially if they are fortunate enough to be sent to the Fall League, which didn't end until November 21st this year.  Spring training begins in mid-February, so they get a little less than 3 months "off."  After a grueling long season, they need to have some down time.  11 weeks just isn't enough time for a very tired body to recover. 

Most of them told me that the offseason is mostly spent getting in shape for the next season.  That's the only time they can do any heavy lifting or other weight training to build up muscle and strength. All they can do during the season is maintain.  If they did more during the season, they'd get sore and wouldn't be able to pitch.  And here I thought they just laid around and goofed off in the offseason.

So that's it for today.  I would like to give a big thanks to Betty Dragon who supplied the awesome pictures in this article.

Stay tuned for upcoming articles: Sitting Down With James Simmons, The AFL Rising Stars Game and others.  I will be posting on an intermittent basis, so check back often.  Sign up for an RSS feed at the lower right or email me at beebee723@comcast,net and I'll put you on my email list to notify you when I post a new article.  And thank you so much for reading my blog. 

Andrew Bailey was named the American League Rookie of the Year this morning.  Hallelujah!  The right guy won.  No big market bias could override what Boom Boom did during the 2009 season. He was flat-out awesome!

He got the call this morning but had to keep it mum, but he figured he it was okay to tell his parents.   Many baseball fans, including his dad--and Bailey himself--thought Elvis Andrus of the Rangers had the inside edge.  The Rangers' 21-year-old shortstop came in second in the voting.  Brett Anderson, the A's best rookie starting pitcher came in 6th.  Not bad to have 2 out of the top 6!

Bailey who is 25 years old, notched 26 saves this season, beating Huston Street's previous record of 24.  No other rookie reliever this year posted more than 2.  He also had a 1.84 ERA, a 6-3 record, and 91 strikeouts with only 24 walks.  Opponents batted a mere .167 against him.  He surrendered only 47 hits in 83 1/3 innings.

Bailey is the second A's closer to receive ROY honors.  Huston Street was similarly rewarded in 2005.  Andrew is the 3rd A's rookie to win the award in the last 6 seasons (Bobby Crosby in 2004), and the 8th Athletic in history to win, tied with the Yankees for the American League.  The Dodgers hold the all-time record with 16.

For you fellow stat geeks, here's how the ROY is chosen:  selected members of the Baseball Writers Association of America--2 sports writers from each Major League team's home area--cast votes for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place.  Bailey had 13 1st-place votes, 6 2nd-place votes and 5 3rd-place votes.  1st-place votes are worth 5 points, 2nd-place are worth 3 points and 3rd-place votes are worth 1 point.  That gives Bailey 88 points.  Andrus received 65 points, Rick Porcello 64, Jeff Niemann 21, Gordon Beckham 10 and Brett Anderson 4 votes (1 2nd-place and 1 3rd-place vote). 

"There were so many rookies who had great years, it's an amazing honor," Bailey said, on his way to the airport from his Connecticut home.  "It's kind of hard to believe.  It's crazy.  I really tried not to think too much about it after the season because it was out of my hands.  All you can do is put up your numbers and hope that's good enough.  I guess this means it was.  It's incredible.  I'm still shaking."

The A's will hold a press conference with Bailey in Oakland tomorrow at 10 am PT to honor his achievement. 

Every team that played in the postseason this year, had former A's players or coaches on their rosters.  Most of them will get some kind of share of the postseason bonuses.

World Series:The Yankees have 3 active players on their postseason roster who used to play for the A's:  Johnny Damon (2001), Nick Swisher (2004-07) and Chad Gaudin (2006-08).  The Phillies have two active former A's, Joe Blanton (2004-08) and Matt Stairs (1996-99).  The Phils' Bench Coach, Davey Lopes played for the A's in 1982-84.  Therefore, there are 6 possible World Series Shares that will go to former A's.  The will also receive winning shares of the League Championship Series (LCS) and their Division Series (LDS).  I will explain all this later.

League Championship Series ("The Pennant"):  On the 2 teams who lost their LCS, the Angel's first base coach, Alfredo Griffin, played for the A's in 1985-87.  Andre Ethier of the Dodgers spent 2003-05 in the A's farm system and was a top A's prospect before he was part of the trade to the Dodgers for Milton Bradley.  Bob Schaefer, the Dodger's Bench Coach, held the same position with the 2007 A's and their Pitching Coach, Rick Honeycutt, pitched for the Green and Gold in 1987-93 and 1995.  So 4 former A's should get LCS  losing and LDS winning shares this year.

On the other 4 teams who lost in the LDS, there were quite a few guys who were formerly affiliated with the A's:

 In the National League, Matt Holiday of the St. Louis Cardinals played for the A's during the first half of 2009.  The Cards' Coaching staff is also full of ex-A's.  Tony LaRussa, the Cards manager, managed the A's from 1986-95, and his pitching coach, Dave Duncan was the A's Pitching Coach from 1985-95 and played for the KC/Oakland A's from 1964-72.  Dave McKay, The Cards'  First Base Coach, was the A's Bullpen and Bench Coach from 1984-89, and the A's1st Base Coach from 1989-95. And Jason Giambi (1995-2001, 2009), Carlos Gonzalez (2008), Huston Street (2005-08), and Matt Murton (pt. of 2008) are all on the active roster of the Rockies.  They should all get losing LDS shares.

In the American League, Manager Terry Francona (2003 A's Bench Coach) and Dave Magadan (1997-98 player) of the Boston Red Sox, and Orlando Cabrera (2009) and Ron Mahay (1999-2000) of the Minnesota Twins should all get losing LDS shares.

Postseason Bonuses:  There are three factors that determine what a player who plays in the post season will receive as bonuses:  1) The size of the  bonus pool for each level of post season play, 2) how far the player's team gets in the postseason, and the share of the team's bonus pool that the player will receive

The Bonus Pool:  There is a separate pool for each level of the postseason.  Each bonus pool receives 60% of the gate receipts for that series.  There is a complicated formula to determine the value of the gate that takes into account the size of the venues, the amount of high-priced premium seating in the venues, the number of games played in the series and whether or not the games sell out.  The actual ticket prices are set by MLB, not the home teams as they are during the season.

Winners vs. Losers:  The winning team's share of the World Series gate receipts is 36% and the loser's share is 24%.  The LCS losing teams each get 12% and the LDS losers get 3% each, and the 4 2nd-place teams that do not win the wild-card receive 1%.

A Player's Share of the Team's Pool:  Here's where things can get sticky.  the 25 roster players vote right after the trade deadline (July 31st) at a meeting chaired by their union representative.  At this meeting the 25 players decide whether players who have not been with the club for the whole season get a full share,a partial share or no share at all.  Non-players, such as trainers, may be granted full or partial shares.  The pool of money is divided by the number of shares granted at the meeting.  There is no llimit on the number of shares, but a player will receive less money if there are more shares granted.

In 2006, members of the St. Louis Cardinals received over $362,000 each for winning the World Series.  For players who have not become elligle for arbitration (less than 3 years experience in the Majors), their share may be more than their regular season salary.  For the players with valuable contracts, their share may be less than 5%.

So that's how postseason bonuses are calculated.  And in all 18 former A's may be ellible to receive postseason money, depending upon what their respective teams voted in their August meeting.

It all may be decided tonight if the Yanikees win, or maybe the Phillies will grit their way to another win to say alive.  It should be a good game.

With the World Series approaching this week, and at the suggestion of my friend, Eric Edward, I thought I'd take a look at whether we can predict which teams make it to the World Series, and why others do not.  A huge topic, I know, but I have found some statistics that might shed some light on the subject.

We now know that the New York Yankees will play the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series , which will begin Wednesday night in New York.  The Phillies are looking to 2-peat, having won the Series last year.  The Yankees, who have won more World Series than any other franchise (26), are really pumped, if last night's game against the Angels is any indication.   It should be a very good series.

So were these two teams the likely candidates to play in the World Series?  Let's look at some numbers in various categories:  salaries, market size, attendance, team value, and prior World Series appearances, to see if we could have predicted this year's Series contenders.

Salaries/Payroll:  It is no surprise that the Yankees have the highest team payroll in the Majors at $201,449,289 for 2009, as of opening day.  The teams ranked 2 through 10 have payrolls between $135,773,988 (Mets) down to $98,904,167 (Mariners).  Of the top 10, only 5 made it into the post season at all, and 4 of the 5 made it to the Championship Series.  If only half of the top ten teams in payroll get into the post season, the correlation between Payroll and getting into the world series is pretty significant, but not over whelming, especially since the 13^th, 16^th and 24^th teams in this category also made it.  So maybe it's not only about paying players more money.

Market Size:  4 of the top 5 teams in market size--Yanks(1), Dodgers (3), Angels (4) and Phillies (5) made it to the 2009 postseason and the same 4 won their respective divisions. The Mets (#2) didn't make it to the postseason, but their #2 position is due largely to the fact that they are in a very densely populated metropolitan area and they moved into a very nice new stadium this season.  The other 4 teams in the playoffs were #6 (Red Sox-Wild Card), #21 (Twins), #23 (Cards) and #24 (Rockies-Wild Card).  Thus it appears that market size helps your chances because there is a larger pool of fans to draw from, but it is not determinative in making it to the postseason.

Attendance:  6 of the 8 top teams in attendance made it to the playoffs in 2009, as well as nos. 11 and 14, all in the top 50% of teams.  The top 5 teams in this category won their respective divisions.  So it looks like Attendance seems to track closely with appearance in the postseason.  But what does this mean?  Are the teams doing well because they have more people coming to the games, or do more people come because the team is doing well?  My guess is it is the latter, which means that attendance alone is a good indicator but not a deciding factor.

Team Value:  By far the most valuable MLB franchise is the New York Yankees ($1.5 billion).  The Mets ($912M, 2nd), the Red Sox ($833M, 3rd), the Dodgers ($722M, 4th), and the Cubs ($700M, 5th) make up the rest of the top 5.  23 of the other teams are worth between $509 million (Angels, ranked 6^th) down to $314 million (Royals, ranked 28th).  The Pirates ($288M, 29th) and the Marlins ($277M, 30th) and are "in the bottom two," a la Dancing With The Stars.

But let's look at the most valuable teams and how they have fared in the World Series.  #1 and #7 will compete in the Fall Classic; both are division and, obviously, the pennant winners.  The 2 other teams that played in the Championship Series are the Dodgers (# 4) and the Angels (#6).  When we go back to the Division Series, the results are mixed.  The Red Sox (3rd) and the Cardinals (8th) are in the top 10, but the Rockies (20th) and Twins (22nd) are way back in the value pack, and show that much less valuable teams can at least make it to the Division Series, though not very likely.  Since 7 of the top 10 in this category made it to the postseason, the team value category seems to have the highest correlation with getting beyond the end of the season.

World Series Experience: The Yankees by far have played in most World Series (39).  Of the rest of the top 10 -- Dodgers (18), Cardinals and Giants (17 each), Athletics (14), Red Sox (11), Tigers and Cubs (10 each), and the Reds and Braves (9 each)--only the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox made it to the post season in 2009.  So World Series experience certainly helps, but it didn't help the Yankees in 2001-2007 when they got eliminated in the ALDS 5 times, and in the ALCS once and lost the World series twice.  The Bronx Bombers haven't made an appearance in the Series since 2003 and haven't won it since 2000.   They also didn't play in the post season at all in 2008, the first time in 14 years.  Because a lot of ancient baseball history skews these results, I didn't include World Series experience in my statistical analysis.

So what do we make of all this?  I determined the rank of each team in each category and then averaged the 4 ranks for each team.  The top teams, from 1 to 10, are, : Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, Phillies, Giants, Astros, Tigers, and Cards.  6 of them made it to the post season, and #1 and #5 are playing in the World Series.  The 1st 6 teams are bunched together in averaged ranks; teams 7-10 (including the Cards) are ranked considerably lower.  So I guess this ranking system is pretty good in predicting who will make it to the post season, but beyond that it's anybody's guess and involves a lot of luck.

The aberrations in the top 10 are interesting:  the Mets, Giants, Astro's and Tigers.  None of them made it to the post season but all have circumstances leading to unusually high ranks: a new stadium, attendance and large market size (Mets), a reasonably new stadium, attendance and long history (Giants), high payroll and market size (Tigers), and then there's the Houston Astros (T#5 in Payroll, #7 in Market Size, and #12 in attendance account for their high rank), go figure.

That's a lot to digest, but if you are a numbers geek like me and want to see my Excel spreadsheet, email me at beebee723@comcast.net and I'll email it to you.  It has some very interesting and surprising statistics.

So sit back and enjoy the World Series.  If my ranking system is correct, the Yankees should win it easily.  But this is the Fall Classic and anything can happen.  As is often said, the team that wants it most will find a way to win it.  We should have a great series to watch.

Data Spources:

Payroll Data: www.cbssports.com/mlb/salaries

Market Size Data: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/articles/baseball_markets.shtml  N.B. For New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Baltimore/Washington and the SF Bay Area, all metropolitan areas with 2 teams, the Census data was allocated according to attendance info.

Attendance Data: www.baseball-reference.com

Team Value Data:    http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/33/baseball-values-09_The-Business-Of-Baseball_Value.html

World Series Experience: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series     

Date: October 23, 2009

Lewis N Wolff, CEO

Wolff-Di Napoli Development Co.

11828 La Grange Avenue

Los Angeles, CA  90025-5212 

          RE:  Some Solutions to the Woes of the Oakland Athletics

Dear Mr. Wolff,

          I have been a fan of the Athletics since they moved from Philadelphia to Kansas City in 1955 when I was a child.  I have a deep love for the game of baseball and the Athletics in particular.  I am writing to you to urge you to use your influence to make some changes in the team and the Coliseum for the 2010 season and beyond. 

          As a season ticket holder, I am concerned that the attendance at the Oakland Coliseum has been declining over the last three years (along with the teams record), but it dropped precipitously during the last half of the 2009 season, when the team was playing over .500 ball.  I attended several mid-week night games when there were not more than 4-5000 people in the stands.  The paid attendance was always 3-4000 more than that, which says to me that the other season ticket holders stayed away in droves.  This is not good for A's or your considerable investment in the team.

          I realize that low gate revenue hampers management's efforts to make any significant moves that result in increasing the cost of running the team, but there are some things that can be done to improve the fan's experiences which will result in increased attendance, better press coverage, increased TV advertizing revenues, and improved player morale.  These things can be accomplished without large outlays of capital.  Some may take some time, but others can be implemented in the 2010 season.

          By far the most important change that needs to be made is to fire (or transfer) Bob Geren  from the job of Field Manager.  It is obvious to any of us who study the game and the A's that he does not have a clue how to manage a team or inspire the players to play at their top potential.  Contrast Bob Geren, with his reserved demeanor and flat affect, to Tony La Russa, who kept his cool but could inspire mediocre players to achieve greatness.  We need a manager who can do that.  Bob Geren is definitely a liability to you and the team.

          You have the power to see that Bob Geren is no longer the manager of the A's.  I know that Bob and Billy Beane are best of friends, but you need to do what is best for the organization and the team, not what's best for Beane and/or Geren.  In any other franchise, three sub-.500 seasons in a row would have resulted in a management change.  Please consider exerting your power as Managing Partner to make this happen.  Hopefully you can get this done in 2010.  If not, then please don't exercise the club's option for 2011.

          Other things that could be done to make the fan experience more enjoyable, and which would get more people in the seats, are:

1)   In these bad economic times, have some more midweek nights with reduced prices on tickets and/or food items to encourage more people to come to a game.  People look for bargains when times are tough.

2)   Do away with the All-You-Can-Eat seats which are rarely occupied (especially for mid-week games), take the tarp off 2 more sections (5 sections total) in the third deck behind home plate, and charge the same price or a few dollars more than bleacher seats.  That would get more people in the stands.  Again it's the economy.

3)   If you don't like No. 2) (or in addition), put outfield plaza-level and field-level seats on sale for half price starting 30 minutes before game time or at game time.  You'd need a little more crowd control around the box office, but it could be done without costing much.  People who want to see the whole game will still buy tickets at full price, and the additional people in the stands would buy lots more food, drink and souvenirs.

4)   Put some color in the bathrooms to jazz them up.  They are so bland and dingy now.  For example, the River Cats' restrooms have inspiring quotes from famous players or managers stenciled above the sinks.  That doesn't sound very important but it does improve the ambience in the stadium.  Some quotes from baseball and football would make sense.

          The primary goal of anything you do must be to get more people to come to A's games.  Having a team on the field that is exciting to watch is the key.  We have great young players and they will be much better in 2010 than they were in 2009 when they were getting their feet wet in the Majors.  But to get the most out of them, we desperately need a new manager.  How about Carney Lansford?  He's available, I hear.  Or make Ty Waller Manager and Carney the bench coach.

          Thanks for considering the points I raised.  As a long-time A's fan, I only want what is best for the team, as I am sure you do too.

                                                          Sincerely,

                                                          Belinda Laird Hylinski

Feel free to pirate any language from the above and write your own letter to Lew.  Maybe we can get this done.  Go A's!!!

I have written about this subject before:  Bob Geren hasn't a clue how to manager a team.  Were you as deflated as I was when the A's announced last week that the coaching staff for 2010 will be the same as in 2009?  As I wrote in my last blog, the attendance for games other than the "Premium Games" (Giants, Red Sox, Yankees, etc.) has been dropping dramatically since July.  Midweek night games drew somewhere around 7-8000 fans on average.  That's terrible.

Billy Beane won't get rid of Geren because they are BFF's.  So we have Bob at least until the end of the 2010 season.  The team has an option for 2011, which I hope they don't exercize.  Here they are, 2 smiles and what almost looks like a sneer, at the presser when  they announced Jason Giambi's signing in January. 

Billy, how'd that work out for you, as Dr. Phil would ask? 

I don't fault Giambi.  Geren asked him to do something he wasn't capable of doing:  playing in the field almost everyday.  Jason, being a good sport, did it, but he played in pain a lot and his hitting suffered.  Look what he did at Colorado after BB+G let him go (and did it badly!) where he was used largely as a pinch hitter! 

So what can we do about Geren?  As I have suggested before,  we fans need to start a letter-writing campaign asking Lew Wolff to force Billy Beane to fire Bob Geren as manager, or at least not rehire him in 2011 .  Maybe BB can give him a job in the front office, but let's get him out of the dugout.

I tried to find an email address for Lew Wolff, and was unsuccessful.  But here's Lew Wolff's snail mail address:

Lewis N. Wolff, CEO

Wolff-Di Napoli Development Co.

11828 La Grange Ave.

Los Angeles, CA  90025-5212

Let's flood his inbox with letters.  Be respectful and don't use profanity, threats or ad hominem attacks.  Just tell him why you think Bob Geren has to go.  Who knows?  He might just listen to us if enough of us write.  My letter will be in the mail tomorrow.  

Idea!  Carney Lansford is available.  Maybe we could get him!  Make Ty Waller the manager and Carney the bench coach for 2010!  Wouldn't that be neat?  Certainly a lot better than what we had this year.  Oh well, it's wishful thinking, I'm afraid.  But I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

Upcoming Topics:  "Some Last Thoughts on the 2009 Season", "Is it Dangerous to be a Fan?" and more.  Check back periodically.  I won't be blogging as often as I do during the season.  I have to concentrate on the final rewrite of my novel.  I plan to start looking for an agent and/or publisher after the first of the year.  Wish me luck.

I went to the A's game on Thursday, Sept. 17^th, and although the announced attendance was 10,873, there were no more than five or six thousand people in the stands.  What's going on here? 

Ticket holders are staying home:  The only explanation for the disparity between the paid attendance and the butts in the seats is that people are buying tickets but staying home in droves.  In this economy, I would think they wouldn't buy the tickets in the first place.  A friend suggested that the season ticket holders may have given up on the team.  That also surprises me as season ticket holders are usually the most loyal fans, since they have to cough up large amounts of money before the season has even started.  All I know is that it is a shame that the team is being sent a message that the fans don't care, especially when they are playing well.

The A's Are Playing Great:  The A's have won their last 6 games, and 11 of the last 13, most games against teams contending for their division.  So it got me thinking about the A's team and player statistics, to see if that might explain why the A's seem to be in such disfavor with the fans.

Won-Loss Record:  As of the end of play yesterday (Sept. 19^th), the A's have won 70 and lost 78 games, for a winning percentage of .473, ranked last place in the AL West, and 18 games behind the Angels.  But with that won-loss record, if the A's were in the AL East, they'd be in 3^rd place ahead of both the Blue Jays and the Orioles, and if they were in the AL Central, they'd be in 4^th place ahead of the Kansas City Royals.   We could talk about the relative strengths of the divisions, but you get my point.  It's not good, but it's not all that bad.

After the All Star Break:  The picture is much rosier for the 2^nd half of the season.  The A's have won 33 and lost 29, for a winning percentage of .532.  In fact, since May, the A's have won 51 and lost 49, for a winning percentage of .510.  Folks, that's playing over .500 ball!  If the A's keep playing like they have over the last 2 weeks, they could even finish the season over .500, which everyone has said all year would be a great achievement, given the team's youth and the team's dismal first two months. 

  But let's look at the statistics more closely:

Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed:  During the first half of the season, the A's won 37 and lost 49 (.430).  They scored 361 runs (4.2 runs/game) but allowed 401 runs to score (5.3 r/g).  That tells you all you need to know about the first half of the season. 

During the second half of the season so far, the team has scored 320 runs (6.2 r/g), but have allowed 285 runs (5.5 r/g).  They young pitchers have learned how to avoid the big inning for the most part, some have added new pitches to their arsenal, and the walks are way down.  Brett Anderson has emerged as the Ace of the rotation, and Cahill and Gonzalez have been strong of late.   But the hitting and scoring has picked up considerably as shown by the runs scored stat for the 2nd half.

Team Stats of Note:  Notwithstanding the A's fans' apathy, the team is by no means at the bottom of the 14 teams in the AL in most categories.  If you want to talk about a bad team, I suffered through the A's first year in Kansas City as a child when they won 63 and lost 91 games (154-game season back then).  One especially ugly game took place on April 23^rd of that year in which the A's lost to the White Sox by the score of 29-6.  They stank, yet the fans came out to the games.  But I digress.

Here are some bright spots from this season: 

Hitting:   The A's typically rank 8^th, 9^th, or 10^th in most hitting categories, meaning that 4-6 teams were worse than the A's in most hitting categories.  The do rank high in at least 1 statistic:  5^th in sacrifice flies!  The only hitting category they rank last in is in home runs--no big surprise there. 

Fielding:  In most categories the A's rank in the middle of the pack.  They have had the fewest passed balls (chalk that up to Kurt Suzuki!)   They rank 4^th in put-outs, innings played on the field, and caught stealing percentage (Suzuki again).

Pitching:  The A's pitching staff are the youngest in average age (25.8 years), 4^th in team shutouts and 12^th in wild pitches made.  They have the 5^th lowest team ERA (4.28) ahead of the Yankees (6^th) and the Angels (10^th), and 5^th in intentional walks, as well as 7^th in strike outs, 8^th in saves, 9^th in runs allowed, and tied with Boston for the fewest home runs allowed.

Player Stats of Note:  On Friday night when the League Leaders were up on the Diamond Vision Screen, I expected not to see any A's player's mentioned.  But I was wrong.  Here are some top-ten player achievements and some not so great records this year:

Walks:  5^th - Jack Cust (88)

Strikeouts:  1^st - Jack Cust (167)

 Stolen Bases:  4^th - Rajai Davis (40)

Caught Stealing:  4^th - Rajai Davis (11)

At Bats/Strikeout:  7^th - Kurt Suzuki (9.943)

Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position (both in the top 10):

                Adam Kennedy  - .349

                Rajai Davis - .337

So why don't the fans come to the Coliseum?  We have an exciting team right now, so we can't lay the blame on the players.  They are playing their hearts out and the games are fun to watch, especially lately.  Some possible culprits that I have mentioned before and some new ones are, in no particular order:

1. The media paint a gloomy picture.  Remember, their unofficial motto is "If it bleeds, it leads!"  Translation:  bad news gets more ink than good news, which encourages the sports writer to look for the negatives.
2. The Coliseum is old, low tech,  and not particularly fan friendly.  The A's will be there for the foreseeable future, so fans, GET OVER IT!  It's not that bad and the food and drink are plentiful and good, if expensive.  Lew Wolff, you could spend a little money on the Coliseum which would help the fan experience.  I have some ideas on that.  Email me at:  beebee723@comcast.net.
3. The Manager hasn't a clue.  I've discoursed on that subject before.  See my earlier blogs.
4. The team has no marquee players.  Are the A's fans so shallow that they have to have a star to get them out to a game?  If so, they aren't true fans of the game of baseball.  Get excited about Kurt Suzuki, Mark Ellis, Raj Davis, Adam Kennedy, Ryan Sweeney, and the young pitchers.   Get off your butts and out to the Coliseum!  I'm doing my part.
5. You freeze your butt off at night games.  So bundle up!  It's an easy fix. 

It's a shame that the stands are so empty at game time.  I am sure there are more reasons than I have listed.  Perhaps you'd like to share yours.  Go A's!!!

P.S.  They won again today 11-4, sweeping the Indians!  Gotta love this team.

Next Article:  Being a Fan Can Be Dangerous.